A Study of the Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Rural Economic Resilience in Hefei Metropolitan Area and the Path to its Enhancement

Based on the “Pressure-State-Response” model, an evaluation index system for rural economic resilience was constructed. The rural economic resilience levels of 26 counties in Hefei Metropolitan Area in 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2022 were measured and evaluated. The spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors within the research scope were analyzed. Cluster analysis was used to classify the development types, and differentiated development paths were proposed. The results show that from 2005 to 2022, the rural economic resilience level in Hefei Metropolitan Area has shown a significant upward trend. The rural economic resilience grades of the counties under the jurisdiction of Hefei and its surrounding counties have continuously improved, while the grades of other counties have relatively decreased. The dominant factors influencing the rural economic resilience levels of each county are regional economic strength, government support, and regional market environment. A matrix was established based on the resilience grades and development types, dividing the counties in the metropolitan area into 9 categories, and targeted differentiated development paths were proposed.