Estimation and Comparative Research on the Contribution of Regional Talents
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摘要: 用人才流动作为生产率扰动的代理变量，对地区生产函数进行参数估计，估算和比较各地大专及以上学历人才资源对地区生产总值的贡献，并对影响各地人才贡献变化的因素进行分解。研究发现，各地人才贡献具有较大差异，变化方向也不相同。长三角地区2010年沪苏浙三地的人才贡献远高于安徽省的人才贡献，而随着时间的推移，沪浙两地大专及以上学历人才资源的贡献下降，安徽省相同人才资源的贡献上升。安徽省人才贡献的上升主要归功于该地全要素生产率的增长和固定资本存量的增加，而沪浙两地人才贡献的下降主要受制于人才资源的边际收益递减规律。Abstract: Using talent flow as the proxy variable of productivity disturbance, and estimating the parameters of the regional production function, this paper estimates and compares the contribution of talent resources with college degree and above to the regional GDP, and decomposes the factors that affect the change of talent contribution in various regions. Research has found that there are significant differences in the contributions of talents from different regions, and the direction of change is also different. In 2010, the talent contribution of Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang in the Yangtze River Delta region was much higher than that of Anhui province. However, over the time, the contribution of talent resources with associate degrees or above in Shanghai and Zhejiang decreased, while the contribution of similar talent resources in Anhui province increased. The increase of talent contribution in Anhui province is mainly attributed to the growth of total factor productivity and the increase of fixed capital stock, while the decline of talent contribution in Shanghai and Zhejiang is mainly subject to the law of diminishing marginal revenue of talent resources.
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