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三孩政策背景下生育意愿的定性比较分析

A Qualitative Comparative Analysis of Fertility Intention in the Context of the Three-child Policy

  • 摘要: 自我国提出三孩政策后,各级政府先后出台多项利好的生育政策,但是民众的生育意愿依旧低迷,人口出生率不容乐观。本文以121份个案为调查对象,运用定性比较分析方法,探索多种因素对三孩生育意愿的联合效应以及不同因素之间的互动关系。研究表明,不存在单个因素构成生育意愿的必要条件,但存在导致较高生育意愿的不同条件组合路径,具体可以归纳为:有亲属代为照看孩子的高收入农村或城市育龄夫妇,或者在国家生育政策的影响下,有一定从众心理的较高收入农村居民,生育三孩意愿较强。建议政府降低育儿经济成本,健全生育休假制度,实行育龄女性灵活的工作时间,提高托育服务行业的效率,加大宣传力度转变民众生育观念,并针对不同的生育主体采取差异化的政策措施。

     

    Abstract: After our country proposed the three-child policy, governments at all levels have successively introduced a number of favorable fertility policies, but people’s fertility intentions are still low, and the birth rate is not optimistic. This article takes 121 individual cases as the survey subjects and uses qualitative comparative analysis methods to explore the combined effects of multiple factors on the willingness to have a third child, as well as the interactive relationships between different factors. Research has shown that there are no necessary conditions for a single factor to constitute fertility intention, but there are different combinations of conditions that lead to higher fertility intention. Specifically, it can be summarized as follows: high-income rural or urban couples of childbearing age who have relatives to take care of their children, or high-income rural residents who have a certain herd mentality under the influence of national fertility policies, have a stronger willingness to have three children. It is suggested that the government should reduce the economic cost of childcare, improve the maternity leave system, implement flexible working hours for women of childbearing age, improve the efficiency of childcare services, increase publicity, change people’s childbearing concepts, and take differentiated policies and measures for different childbearing subjects.

     

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