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农业保险对农民收入的影响基于空间计量和系统GMM模型

The Impact of Agricultural Insurance on Farmers’ Income Based on Spatial Measurement and System GMM Model

  • 摘要: 利用我国31个省份2010—2020年面板数据,构建空间计量模型和系统GMM模型,实证分析农业保险对农民收入的影响。结果表明,不考虑空间因素时,农业保险对农民收入有着正向影响;考虑空间因素时,农业保险存在显著的空间依赖性,且存在正向的溢出效应,但强度较弱。分地区实证结果表明,农业保险对不同地区农民收入影响强度存在差异,对东部地区农民收入的影响强度较高。建议制定因地制宜的农业保险政策,加强区域间合作,促进农业保险协调发展。

     

    Abstract: Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2010 to 2020, this paper constructs a spatial econometric model and a system GMM model to empirically analyze the impact of agricultural insurance on farmers’ income. The results show that agricultural insurance has a positive impact on farmers’ income when spatial factors are not considered. Considering spatial factors, agricultural insurance has significant spatial dependence, and there is a positive spillover effect, but the intensity is weak. The empirical results show that the impact of agricultural insurance on farmers’ income in different regions is different, and the impact on farmers’ income in the eastern region is higher. It is recommended to formulate agricultural insurance policies that are tailored to local conditions, strengthen interregional cooperation, and promote the coordinated development of agricultural insurance.

     

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