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合肥都市圈乡村经济韧性时空演变及提升路径研究

A Study of the Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Rural Economic Resilience in Hefei Metropolitan Area and the Path to its Enhancement

  • 摘要: 基于“压力—状态—响应”模型构建乡村经济韧性评价指标体系,对合肥都市圈26个县域2005、2010、2015和2022年4个年份乡村经济韧性水平进行测度评价,分析研究范围内时空演变特征和影响因素,运用聚类分析法进行发展类型划分,提出差异化发展路径。结果表明:2005—2022年,合肥都市圈乡村经济韧性水平呈现显著升高的趋势,合肥市下辖县及其周边县乡村经济韧性等级不断提升,其他县域等级则相对降低;影响各县域乡村经济韧性水平的主导因素为区域经济实力、政府支持力度和地区市场环境。根据韧性等级和发展类型建立矩阵,将都市圈县域分为9类,并有针对性地提出差异化发展路径。

     

    Abstract: Based on the “Pressure-State-Response” model, an evaluation index system for rural economic resilience was constructed. The rural economic resilience levels of 26 counties in Hefei Metropolitan Area in 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2022 were measured and evaluated. The spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors within the research scope were analyzed. Cluster analysis was used to classify the development types, and differentiated development paths were proposed. The results show that from 2005 to 2022, the rural economic resilience level in Hefei Metropolitan Area has shown a significant upward trend. The rural economic resilience grades of the counties under the jurisdiction of Hefei and its surrounding counties have continuously improved, while the grades of other counties have relatively decreased. The dominant factors influencing the rural economic resilience levels of each county are regional economic strength, government support, and regional market environment. A matrix was established based on the resilience grades and development types, dividing the counties in the metropolitan area into 9 categories, and targeted differentiated development paths were proposed.

     

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