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安徽省数字乡村发展水平的时空特征与影响因素研究

Research on the Spatial-Temporal Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Digital Rural Development in Anhui Province

  • 摘要: 基于2018—2023年安徽省县域数据,采用核密度估计、Dagum基尼系数、自然断点法、空间计量模型以及双重机器学习模型,研究安徽省数字乡村发展水平的时空特征与影响因素。研究发现:安徽省数字乡村发展水平在“数字乡村战略”提出后上升趋势明显,但在房地产下行周期有所放缓;区域间差异演变呈“上升—下降—上升”态势,与“后发优势理论”相契合;全省发展空间集聚特征突出,皖中地区集聚类型多元,其中具有高-高集聚特征的县域主要集中在合肥都市圈中的合肥、六安以及安庆。良好的经济基础与地方政府对技术创新以及人才培养的重视是推动数字乡村发展的重要因素,经济基础在100公里以内存在显著负向空间溢出效应,而数字乡村发展本身则具备正向溢出效应。

     

    Abstract: Based on the county-level data of Anhui Province from 2018 to 2023, this paper studies the spatio-temporal characteristics and influencing factors of the digital rural development level in Anhui Province by using kernel density estimation, Dagum Gini coefficient, natural break method, spatial econometric model, and double machine learning model. The research finds that the digital rural development level in Anhui Province has shown a significant upward trend since the proposal of the "Digital Rural Strategy", but it has slowed down during the real estate downturn cycle. The evolution of regional differences shows an "upward - downward - upward" trend, which is consistent with the "latecomer advantage theory". The development of digital rural areas shows significant spatial agglomeration characteristics, and in the central Anhui region, multiple agglomeration patterns coexist. Among them, the counties with high-high agglomeration characteristics are mainly concentrated in Hefei, Lu'an and Anqing in the Hefei Metropolitan Area. The influencing factors indicate that a good economic foundation and the local government's emphasis on technological innovation and talent cultivation are important factors promoting the development of digital rural areas. Among them, the economic foundation has a significant negative spatial spillover effect within 100 kilometers, while the development of digital rural areas itself has a positive spillover effect.

     

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