Abstract:
Based on the county-level data of Anhui Province from 2018 to 2023, this paper studies the spatio-temporal characteristics and influencing factors of the digital rural development level in Anhui Province by using kernel density estimation, Dagum Gini coefficient, natural break method, spatial econometric model, and double machine learning model. The research finds that the digital rural development level in Anhui Province has shown a significant upward trend since the proposal of the "Digital Rural Strategy", but it has slowed down during the real estate downturn cycle. The evolution of regional differences shows an "upward - downward - upward" trend, which is consistent with the "latecomer advantage theory". The development of digital rural areas shows significant spatial agglomeration characteristics, and in the central Anhui region, multiple agglomeration patterns coexist. Among them, the counties with high-high agglomeration characteristics are mainly concentrated in Hefei, Lu'an and Anqing in the Hefei Metropolitan Area. The influencing factors indicate that a good economic foundation and the local government's emphasis on technological innovation and talent cultivation are important factors promoting the development of digital rural areas. Among them, the economic foundation has a significant negative spatial spillover effect within 100 kilometers, while the development of digital rural areas itself has a positive spillover effect.